Abstract
In February 2022 Russian troops entered the territory of Ukraine. Since then, Europe in general and Ukraine in particular have been plunged into a situation of great uncertainty. Many forecasts have been made to try to find certainties in a world that has more doubts than certainties. Much of Europe's future depends on Ukraine and, above all, on how the war with Russia ends. This paper will therefore attempt to draw three scenarios of Russia's future based on the following five factors: the war in Ukraine, Putin's situation, the Russian economy, sanctions and social peace in Russia. A prospective methodology will be used based on a previous analysis of Russia's participation in the wars in which it has taken sides. These scenarios will serve to show the consequences of a Russian defeat on the Ukrainian front, not only for Russia and Ukraine but also for the rest of the world.
